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2019互聯網大敗局回顧共享經濟篇
2020-01-11 17:57   来源:  www.tasteherzog.com   评论:0 点击:

2019互聯網大敗局回顧共享經濟篇共享经济一词并不是新事物。早在1978年,美国得克萨斯州立大学社会学教授马

  共享经济一词并不是新事物。早在1978年,美国得克萨斯州立大学社会学教授马科斯·费尔逊(MarcusFelson)和伊利诺伊大学社会学教授琼·斯潘思()就提出了协作经济的概念,指将闲置资源分享给社会并取得回报,这与今天共享经济的概念是一致的。但是,受限于当时的技术条件,共享的信息不能有效地传递,因此共享经济并未流行起来。

The word sharing economy is not new. Back in 1978, Marcus Nelson, a professor of sociology at Texas State University in the United States, and Joan Spence, a professor of sociology at the University of Illinois, proposed the concept of a collaborative economy, referring to sharing unused resources to society and making a return, which is in line with today's concept of a shared economy. However, limited by the technical conditions of the time, shared information cannot be effectively transmitted, so the sharing economy is not popular.

  直到2010年前后,移动互联网的大幅普及,令信息可以以前所未有的速度和广度来传播,共享经济开始具备了技术基础。此时,共享经济曾一度以传统经济颠覆者的形象出现,优步、Airbnb的横空出世,一度被认为是传统出租车和酒店行业的终结者。2015年前后,共享经济经历了一轮爆发期,在CBInsights的独角兽公司榜单中,共享经济曾一度占据半壁江山。与国外共享经济相比,国内共享经济发展更为迅速。滴滴出行与优步中国鏖战近1年之后,成功收购后者,奠定了滴滴出行在国内共享出行领域的龙头地位。在此之后,以ofo、摩拜等为代表的共享单车一度迅猛发展,彼时更是被誉为“新四大发明”之一。

Until after 2010, with the proliferation of the mobile internet, information could spread at an unprecedented pace and breadth, and the sharing economy began to have a technological base. At one point, the shared economy once appeared as a traditional economic disrupter. Uber and Airbnb were once considered the end of the traditional taxi and hotel industry. Before and after 2015, the sharing economy went through an explosion, and at one point in the CB Insights unicorn list, the sharing economy occupied half of the mountain. Compared with foreign sharing economy, domestic sharing economy develops more rapidly. Nearly a year after the battle between DiDi and Uber China, the successful acquisition of the latter has established the leading position of DiDi in the field of shared travel at home. Since then, shared bikes, represented by ofo and mobikes, have been widely known as \"one of the four new inventions \".

  然而到了2019年前后,共享经济的神话似乎开始破灭。国内共享单车经历飞速发展之后,迅速滑落。昔日的两大巨头,摩拜单车被美团收购,ofo则遭遇资金危机,股权被冻结。国际巨头表现也持续低迷,戴姆勒集团旗下的共享汽车Car2go退出中国市场。优步上市之后的市值低于上市前的估值,WeWork更是终止了上市计划。

By 2019, however, the myth of a shared economy seems to be beginning to unravel. After the rapid development of domestic shared bicycle, it slipped rapidly. The two giants of the past, mobike, were bought by Meituan, ofo suffered a financial crisis and its stake was frozen. International giants have also continued to underperform, with Daimler AG's share car Car2go exiting the Chinese market. After the Uber listing, the market value was lower than the premarket valuation, and WeWork ended the listing.

  如今,对共享经济的定义,除了严格的以peertopeer(点对点)形式分享闲置资源的形式外,一般还将运用信息技术实现分时租赁也纳入共享经济的范畴。但是,按照这一观点,共享经济不过是过去租赁行业运用互联网技术,实现更广的覆盖范围或者提高租赁的效率。在这种观点下,共享经济适合单价比较高的商品,如汽车、写字楼、珠宝等。

Nowadays, in addition to sharing idle resources strictly in the form of peerscopeer (point-to-point), information technology is generally used to implement time-sharing in the sharing economy. However, according to this view, the sharing economy is merely the use of Internet technology by the leasing industry in the past to achieve greater coverage or efficiency in leasing. In this view, the sharing economy is suitable for goods with higher unit price, such as cars, office buildings, jewelry and so on.

  但在实际中,以分时租赁为代表的共享经济并未获得良好的发展,如主打奔驰Smart车型轿车租赁的Car2go、写字楼租赁的WeWork,以及国内曾出现过的奢侈品箱包、珠宝的租赁等,几乎都不同程度的遇到经营困境,有些甚至已经消失。同样完全依靠PtoP模式的共享经济企业,如主打家庭闲置用品租赁的SnapGoods也早早地关闭了网站。

But in practice, the sharing economy, represented by time-sharing leasing, has not been well developed, such as Car2go, a car rental for the main Mercedes-Benz Smart model, WeWork, office rental, and the luxury luggage and jewelry leasing that have appeared in China, almost all of them have encountered business difficulties in varying degrees, some of which have even disappeared. Sharing-economy companies that also rely solely on the PtoP model, such as Snap Goods, which specialises in renting unused household supplies, have also shut down their sites early.

  在交易费用概念提出之前,经济学默认交易是没有成本或者成本极低的,因此分工理论认为,社会分工会促进专业化生产,从而提升生产率,促进社会福利的整体提升。因此,社会分工会从图1中的a一直演化成c,达到最终的稳定状态。

Before the concept of transaction cost was put forward, economics agreed that the transaction was cost-free or extremely low, so the division of labor theory argued that the social division of labor would promote specialized production, thereby increasing productivity and promoting the overall improvement of social welfare. therefore, the social division of labor evolved from a in figure 1 all the way to c, reaching the final stable state.

  如果从这个角度看,共享经济可以促进社会分工更为细化,使部分闲置的资源得到更充足的利用,将共享经济视为新的风口,这一观点是站得住的。

If from this point of view, the sharing economy can promote a more detailed social division of labor, so that some of the idle resources to be more fully utilized, the sharing economy as a new tuyere, this view can stand.

  2009年诺贝尔经济学奖得主,奥利弗·威廉姆森(Oliver·Williamson),将交易费用分为交易前的费用和交易后的费用。交易前的费用是指由于将来的情况不确定,需要事先规定交易各方的权利、责任和义务,在明确这些权利、责任和义务的过程中就要花费成本和代价。交易后的费用是指交易发生以后的成本。主要表现为,交易双方为了保持长期的交易关系而所付出的代价和成本;交易双方发现事先确定的交易事项有误而需要加以变更所要付出的费用以及交易双方由于取消交易协议而需支付的费用和机会损失。

Oliver Williamson, the 2009 Nobel laureate in economics, divided transaction costs into pre-transaction costs and post-transaction costs. Pre-transaction expenses refer to the need to specify the rights, responsibilities and obligations of the parties to the transaction in advance because of uncertain future circumstances, and the costs and costs in the process of defining these rights, responsibilities and obligations. The cost after the transaction refers to the cost after the transaction occurs. The main performance is the costs and costs of the parties to the transaction in order to maintain a long-term trading relationship; the costs incurred by the parties to the transaction and the costs and opportunities incurred by the parties to the transaction as a result of the cancellation of the transaction agreement.

  因此,加入交易费用之后,图1的分工就可以解释为,a自己自足状态,每个人生产自己所需的产品,没有交易费用。b局部分工状态,每个人生产部分商品,市场仍然存在区隔,交易在部分人群中发生,交易开始产生费用。c完全分工状态,每个人只生产1种商品,交易在任意两人之间发生,交易成本相比b大幅提升。

therefore, after adding the transaction costs, the division of labor in figure 1 can be explained as a self-contained state, where each person produces the product he or she needs without the transaction costs. b Bureau part-work status, each person produces part of the goods, the market is still segregated, transactions occur in part of the population, the transaction begins to incur costs. c Complete division of labour, with each producing only one commodity, transactions occurring between any two, and transaction costs significantly higher than b.

  加入了交易费用,社会分工能否从b演进到c,就要看c的专业化生产提升效率所带来的收益的增加,是否高于交易费用的提升。如果收益大于成本,那么更细致的分工将更为有效,反之更简单的交易关系则更有利于参与方。

In addition to transaction costs, whether the social division of labor from b to c, depends on the c specialized production efficiency brought by the increase in efficiency, whether higher than the transaction costs. A more detailed division of labour would be more effective if the benefits were greater than the costs, whereas a simpler trading relationship would be more conducive to participants.

  自优步和Aribnb两大共享经济巨头创造了巨额的估值神话之后,大量共享经济企业如雨后春笋般涌现。而这些企业涌入的赛道也五花八门,服装、箱包、珠宝、篮球甚至雨伞都可以共享,一时之间似乎万物皆可共享。但是,国内共享经济企业除了滴滴出行依然稳健外,共享充电宝、共享单车在经历了泡沫的破灭之后,还有少量的企业存活,但高估值的时代早已过去。而其他种类繁多的共享经济形式,甚至连“风口”都未形成就迅速败落。

Since the giants of the shared economy, Uber and Aribnb, created huge valuation myths, a large number of shared-economy businesses have sprung up. These companies are also flooding in on a variety of tracks, with clothing, luggage, jewelry, basketball and even umbrellas to share. However, in addition to the domestic sharing economy companies are still robust, sharing portable battery, shared bicycle after the bubble burst, there are a small number of enterprises to survive, but the era of high valuation has long passed. But other kinds of sharing economy form, even \"tuyere\" did not form to fall quickly.

  能否有效的降低交易费用,是共享经济存在的基础。而对于以共享经济为业务模式的企业来说,仅靠降低交易费用还不足以维持企业的运作,还需要具有较高的交易频次以创造足够多的现金流,支持企业的发展。

Whether the transaction cost can be reduced effectively is the basis of sharing economy. But for the enterprises with the sharing economy as the business model, it is not enough to maintain the operation of the enterprise by reducing the transaction cost alone, but also need to have a high frequency of transactions to create enough cash flow to support the development of the enterprise.

  因此,我们可以用图2的矩阵图来分析,为什么有些共享经济的赛道会失败。处于第一象限,交易费用和消费频次都较高,且通过共享经济能显著降低交易费用的企业,既能获得足够市场规模,又有足够的交易频次创造现金流,最容易在共享经济领域取得成功。第四象限中,交易费用降低幅度较小,但交易频次较高的企业也能会产生一些企业。

Therefore, we can use the matrix diagram of Figure 2 to analyze why some of the shared economy's track will fail. In the first quadrant, enterprises with high transaction costs and consumption frequency, and which can significantly reduce transaction costs through the sharing economy, cannot only obtain sufficient market size, but also have enough transaction frequency to create cash flow, which is most likely to succeed in the sharing economy. In the fourth quadrant, the reduction of transaction costs is small, but the higher frequency of trading enterprises can also produce some enterprises.

  首先,从交易费用的维度看,汽车出行和民宿是交易费用最高的两个赛道。如个人购买汽车前要付出大量的对汽车型号、性能、价格等信息的搜集成本。其次,在使用中需要对车况、是否需要保养等信息做出判断,也是一种成本的付出。滴滴、优步采用的共享出行的方式,使得使用者无需对上述信息付出搜寻成本,只需要关注出行本身就可以。

First of all, from the dimension of transaction costs, car travel and lodging are the two most expensive tracks. Such as the individual to buy a car before paying a lot of car model, performance, price and other information collection costs. Secondly, it is also a cost to judge the condition of the car and whether it needs maintenance. DiDi, Uber's way of sharing travel, so that users do not have to pay the cost of searching for the above information, just focus on the travel itself.

  其次,从交易频次看,城市出租车无疑是高频次的出行需求,尤其是大城市的用车高峰期,出租车往往供不应求,共享出行将大量空闲的私家车推向市场,满足了消费频次的需求。2019年3季度,优步处理的在线订单数量达到亿次,也证明了该市场的庞大。

Secondly, from the point of view of transaction frequency, urban taxi is undoubtedly a high frequency of travel demand, especially in the peak period of large cities, taxis are often in short supply, and shared travel will bring a large number of idle private cars to the market to meet the demand of consumption frequency. In the third quarter of 2019, the number of online orders Uber processed reached 100 million, also proving the size of the market.

  这是因为Car2go这类公司,经营业务仍然是自有汽车的租赁,只是将汽车的出租过程,由过去的人工操作,改为用户使用App在线自助操作。这种模式相比优步而言,并没有显著地降低交易费用。用户使用App首先需要上传驾驶执照,审核通过后,才能使用App租车。虽然这类租车公司的网点可以比人工租车公司要多一些,但仍然限制于固定地点,不能随时随地取用。此外,由于工作人员较少,供出租的汽车,车况并不能得到很好的保障,用户在取车时,汽车的油量、电量并不是保持在满的状态,很可能需要用户中途加油或充电。这样与人工租车对比起来,互联网汽车租赁并没有显著降低交易费用,甚至可能更高。因此,互联网汽车租赁的退出就不足为奇了。

This is because companies such as Car2go, operating business is still the rental of their own cars, just the rental process of the car, from the past manual operation, to the user to use App online self-help operation. This model does not significantly reduce transaction costs compared to Uber. Users use App first need to upload a driver's license, after the audit passed before using App to rent a car. Although such car rental companies can have more outlets than manual car rental companies, they are still limited to fixed locations and cannot be accessed anywhere and anytime. In addition, due to the small number of staff, car rental, the condition of the car cannot be well protected, the user in the car, the amount of fuel, electricity is not kept in full state, it is likely to require users to fuel or charge halfway. This compares with the manual car rental, the internet car rental does not significantly reduce transaction costs, or perhaps even higher. Therefore, the withdrawal of Internet car rental is not surprising.

  Airbnb也是同样如此,从一些学者对美国Airbnb的统计数据看,Airbnb更多地分布在郊区,住宿时间比酒店略长,因此Airbnb更多地是进入短期租赁市场,而非商务差旅市场。从这个角度看,相比于用户到某个地方去当地房产中介找短租房,Airbnb可以大大节约用户对住房的搜寻成本。此外,短期租赁的消费频次也足够高,可以支撑起企业的运营。

The same is true for Airbnb, which, according to statistics from some scholars on the U.S. Airbnb, is more distributed in the suburbs and has a slightly longer stay than the hotel, so Airbnb is more into the short-term rental market than the business travel market. From this point of view, Airbnb can significantly reduce the cost of searching for a home compared to a local estate agent looking for a short lease somewhere. In addition, the consumption frequency of short-term leasing is high enough to support the operation of the enterprise.

  位于第四象限的共享充电宝和共享单车两个行业比较有趣。这两个行业严格来说不属于共享经济,而是传统租赁的互联网化。这表现为充电宝和单车由企业持有,而非个人闲置的物品。如此一来,对企业来说就有一笔庞大的固定资产开支、折旧以及损耗。并且,充电宝、单车是高度标准化的产品,用户在选择的时候,没有太多的信息搜集成本。这类共享并没有显著的降低用户的交易费用,反而提升了企业自身的交易费用,这样的市场本身与高交易费用的市场相比就小很多。但如果市场较小,但消费频次高,也可以支持企业的生存。由于目前手机电池续航能力普遍偏弱,使得共享充电宝存在一定的市场,但其参与的玩家估值早已远离独角兽企业的范畴。

Shared portable battery and shared bike in the fourth quadrant are fun. These two industries strictly do not belong to the sharing economy, but the Internet of traditional leasing. This is manifested in portable battery and bicycle holdings rather than personally idle items. In this way, there is a huge fixed asset expenditure, depreciation and wear and tear for the enterprise. And, portable battery, bicycle is highly standardized products, users in the choice, not too much information collection costs. This kind of sharing does not significantly reduce the user's transaction costs, but instead increases the enterprise's own transaction costs, such a market itself is much smaller than the high transaction costs of the market. But if the market is small, but the frequency of consumption is high, it can also support the survival of enterprises. Due to the current weak battery life, there is a certain market for shared portable battery, but its players have long been far away from unicorns.

  共享单车的境况甚至更为困难,早期ofo和摩拜单车大举扩张覆盖城市,ofo甚至强攻海外市场。然而与优步、滴滴的共享模式不同,优步、滴滴的共享模式车辆的维护由平台上的个人负担,而共享单车公司则全部由公司负担,在公司运营能力不足的情况下,急剧扩张的成本令公司难以消化,造成了共享单车的败局。

Sharing bikes is even more difficult, with early ofo and mobikes aggressively expanding to cover cities, and ofo even storming overseas markets. However, unlike Uber and Didi's sharing mode, the maintenance of Uber and Didi's sharing mode vehicles is borne by the individuals on the platform, while the shared bicycle companies are all borne by the company. In the absence of the company's operating capacity, the rapid expansion of the cost makes the company difficult to digest, resulting in the failure of the shared bicycle.

  而位于二、三象限的公司,既没有广阔的市场,消费频次也难以为继,这些领域的创业公司更多的是共享经济的噱头,迅速地衰败也就不足为奇。例如,共享珠宝、箱包等领域。通过数字技术共享,的确降低了撮合成本。但是珠宝、箱包等商品,对其品质的鉴定有着非常高的门槛,如何确保共享前出出租方提供的商品为真货,如何确保共享过程中不会发生掉包的情况,这需要极高的监督和鉴定成本。显然这类市场,不符合共享经济存在的两个条件。

And companies in the second and third quadrants, there is no broad market, consumption frequency is also unsustainable, these areas of start-ups are more of a gimmick to share the economy, it is not surprising that the rapid decline. For example, share jewelry, luggage and other areas. Sharing through digital technology does reduce the cost of matchmaking. However, jewelry, luggage and other goods, the quality of its identification has a very high threshold, how to ensure that the goods provided by the lessor before sharing is true goods, how to ensure that the sharing process will not occur in the case of missing bags, which requires extremely high monitoring and identification costs. Obviously, such markets do not meet the two requirements for a shared economy.

  共享经济的基础,是借助互联网技术将闲置的资源更有效的利用起来。这决定了共享经济几乎都要以平台化的模式运营,而平台化的基础是双边市场。双边市场有两个显著的特点。一是,交叉的网络外部性,即市场中一方的用户数量和交易量,会影响另一方的用户数量和交易量。二是价格的不对称性。由于任一方价格的变动,都会导致另一方交易行为的变化。

Sharing economy is based on the use of Internet technology to use idle resources more effectively. This determines that the sharing economy operates almost entirely in a platform-based model based on bilateral markets. Bilateral markets have two salient features. One is that the cross-network externality, that is, the number of users and the volume of transactions of one party in the market, will affect the number of users and the volume of transactions of the other party. The second is the asymmetry of prices. Any change in the price of either party will result in a change in the transaction behavior of the other party.

  因此平台企业需要对供需双方分别定价,以实现平台收益的最大化。在早期,为实现平台用户数的增加,平台往往需要对供方或需方采用补贴的形式,吸引一方的加入,从而实现吸引另一方加入,以扩大平台规模。

Therefore, platform enterprises need to price the supply and demand separately to realize the maximization of platform income. In the early stage, in order to realize the increase of the number of users of the platform, the platform often needs to adopt the form of subsidy to the supplier or the demand side to attract one party to join, thus realizing the other party to join in order to expand the scale of the platform.

  如果市场只有一家企业,或者一家独大企业,补贴模式是可行的。当积累了足够用户之后,平台可以依靠规模经济盈利。或者企业在垄断市场之后,由于用户缺乏需求价格弹性,企业可以通过涨价的方式来获得盈利。

If there is only one enterprise in the market, or a single large enterprise, the subsidy model is feasible. After accumulating enough users, the platform can rely on economies of scale to make a profit. Or after the enterprise monopolizes the market, because the user lacks the demand price elasticity, the enterprise can obtain the profit through the way of raising the price.

  但如果是一个完全竞争市场,情况就很不乐观。为了抢占用户,企业之间会陷入补贴不止的囚徒困境(图3)。这个时候,企业的融资能力就显得至关重要,在企业实现盈利之前,失去融资的支持,企业很可能就会面临失败。如表1、表2分别为ofo和摩拜的融资情况。摩拜被收购距最后一笔融资不到1年的时间。而根据启信宝的数据显示,扩张更为激进的ofo在2019年04月04日被股权冻结,距最后一笔融资同样不足1年时间。

But if it is a fully competitive market, the situation is not optimistic. In order to seize the user, there will be more than subsidized prisoners between enterprises (Fig.3). At this time, the financing capacity of the enterprise is crucial, before the enterprise realizes the profit, without the support of financing, the enterprise is likely to face failure. The financing ofo and mobike are shown in tables 1 and 2 respectively. mobike was acquired less than a year after the last financing. The more aggressive expansion ofo was frozen on april 04,2019, just under a year after the last financing, according to qixinbao.

  最后,关于共享经济的讨论中,有观点认为,共享经济将分散在社会中的闲置资产再利用,因此共享经济属于轻资产模式,企业不需要自己掌握很多资产,运营模式更为灵活,因此理论上企业可以获得更为丰厚的利润。

Finally, in the discussion of the sharing economy, there is a view that the sharing economy will be scattered in the society of idle assets reuse, so the sharing economy belongs to the light asset model, enterprises do not need to own a lot of assets, the operation model is more flexible, so in theory, enterprises can get more profits.

  但是我们看实践中,即便是平台化运营的共享经济,也难以真正实现轻资产运营。如图4所示,我们看经移动平均处理后,优步的季度总资产增速超过10%,增速并不缓慢。其中2019年3季度,公司非流动资产为171亿美元,占总资产的53%,这似乎与轻资产的观点相悖。

But in practice, even the shared economy of platform operation is difficult to realize the operation of light assets. As shown in Figure 4, after looking at moving averages, Uber's quarterly total asset growth of more than 10% is not slow. Of these, in the third quarter of 2019, the company's non-current assets were $17.1 billion, or 53% of total assets, which seemed to contradict the view of light assets.

  产生这种情况的原因在于,平台型共享经济企业需要建立大型的数据中心,以大量的信息处理能力支持不断增加的用户数量。同时,平台型企业为实现盈利,需要通过提高运营效率,通过更高效的供需配比,实现盈利。而这种效率的提升,必须通过不断优化算法以及算力的提升来实现,这也需要企业在数据中心上产生巨额投入。

The reason for this is that platform-based sharing economies need to build large data centers to support the growing number of users with a large amount of information processing capacity. At the same time, in order to achieve profit, platform-based enterprises need to improve operational efficiency, through more efficient supply and demand ratio to achieve profit. However, the improvement of efficiency must be achieved through the continuous optimization of algorithms and the improvement of computational power.

  因此,共享经济企业要持续保持竞争优势,其资本投入必不可少。轻资产运营的模式,可能仅存在于理论当中。

Therefore, to maintain the competitive advantage of shared economic enterprises, its capital investment is essential. The light asset operation model may only exist in theory.

  回顾共享经济的败局,我们不难发现,无论商业模式如何创新,始终要遵循基本的经济规律。过度包装热炒新概念,在短期的资本热潮之后,败局终将到来。

Looking back at the failure of the shared economy, it is not difficult to find that no matter how innovative the business model is, we should always follow the basic economic laws. Over-packaging the new concept, in the short-term capital boom after the defeat will come.

中欧商业评论“思维力成就决策力”,《中欧商业评论》依托中欧国际工商学院强大的资源优势,以深入和前瞻性的触角,透析瞬息万变的商业世界,向中国企业推荐行之有效的管理案例,并助力提升中国商业精英的思维力、决策力、领导力。

Relying on the strong resource advantages of the China-EU Institute of Business and Industry, the China-EU Business Review recommends effective management cases to Chinese enterprises and helps to enhance the thinking, decision-making and leadership of the Chinese business elite.

由于二级市场与一级市场估值逻辑的不同,高速增长的独角兽IPO之后,频频遇冷。独角兽公司如何重塑增长,将是公司上市之后面临的全新挑战。

Because the secondary market and the primary market valuation logic is different, the rapid growth of unicorn IPO after the frequent unexpected. How unicorns reshape growth will be a new challenge for companies after they go public.


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