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即便斩首有疗效,中东依然不会输
2020-01-08 01:06   来源:  www.tasteherzog.com   评论:0 点击:

即便斩首有疗效,中东依然不会输尽管世界在某种程度上被抹平了,但有一个事实是任何技术也无法改变的,那就

尽管世界在某种程度上被抹平了,但有一个事实是任何技术也无法改变的,那就是,地球还是圆的——总有一部分在白天,一部分在黑夜,也总是白天不懂夜的黑。

Although the world has been somewhat flattened, the fact that no technology can change is that the earth is still round - there is always part in the day, part in the night, and always in the darkness of the night.

比如,当美国在中东时间2020年1月3日凌晨约1:40对苏莱曼尼实施斩首行动的时候,美国还处在2020年1月2日的晚上,与此同时,与中东时差约5个小时的中国人民已经开启了1月3日的生活。

For example, when the United States decapitated Suleimani about 1:40 a.m. Middle Eastern time on January 3,2020, the United States was still on the night of January 2,2020, while the Chinese people, who were about five hours behind the Middle East, had begun their life on January 3.

1月3日,刚刚创出了历史新高的美国股市下跌,日本股市也跟着跳水,刚刚重新回到3000点的沪指,也象征性地下探了一下。但很快就有网民明白,美国深陷中东“利好”必将中国。已经有人谨慎地表示乐观,这是美国要再次送给中国一个“黄金十年”。

On january 3rd, just hit a record high in the u.s. stock market fell, the japanese stock market also followed the plunge, just back to 3000 points of the Prev, also symbolically underground. But soon some netizens understood that the United States was trapped in the Middle East \"good\" will China. There has been cautious optimism that the United States is once again giving China a \"golden decade \".

黄金岁月是奋斗出来的,也是运气送来的。如果命运已经被诅咒,怎么奋斗也逃不出泥淖。比如中东一些国家的人民不能说不奋斗,但主要是在对内对外的双重折腾中奋斗。

The golden years are struggled, but also brought by luck. If fate has been cursed, no struggle can escape the mud. For example, the people of some countries in the Middle East cannot say no struggle, but mainly in the internal and external double struggle.

苏莱曼尼就是一个奋斗者,他从平民出身奋斗成为伊朗革命卫队最高将领的过程,读来颇为励志。他是一个革命者,1979年,22岁的他见证了推翻巴列维王朝的革命的胜利。那个年代,很多人不满巴列维王朝独裁腐败非宗教化的统治。后来的故事再一次证明历史的滑稽之处——打碎一种令人不满的状况,常常会带来一种令人绝望的状况。

Suleimani was a struggler, and he was inspired to read the process of becoming the top general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard from a civilian background. He was a revolutionary, and in 1979, at the age of 22, he witnessed the victory of the revolution that overthrew the Balevi dynasty. In those days, many people were dissatisfied with the de-religious rule of the Brevey dictatorship. The story that followed once again proved the funnyness of history - smashing a discontented condition often leads to a desperate one.

看中东的100年来的历史,只有绝望,没有希望。我悲观地认为,未来100年,那里能够不比现在更糟糕,就已经不错了。投胎在伊拉克伊朗叙利亚这样地方,大概率会很悲催。

Looking at the 100-year history of the Middle East, there is only despair and no hope. I am pessimistic that in the next 100 years it will be good to be there no worse than it is now. In places like iraq, iran, syria, the odds are very sad.

关于中东的历史,我在《叙利亚,是谁出的题这么的难》一文中,略有提及,这里就不想说了——把历史捋一遍实在是写起来头疼,读起来头晕。

As for the history of the Middle East, I have a slight mention of it in \"Syria, Whose Problem is So Difficult,\" and I don't want to say it here - it's really a headache to write through history and read it giddy.

多年来,伊朗人民每天在向真主祷告的时候,都会加上一句“美国人去死”。为了改变那里,美国人确实在中东死了不少。如今,美国似乎学习到了以色列立足中东的精髓,谁要打我我就打谁,斩首行动,精准打击。

For many years, the Iranian people have been praying daily to Allah with the phrase \"Americans die \". Americans did die in the Middle East to change it. Now, the United States seems to have learned the essence of Israel's Middle East, whoever will hit me I will hit, beheading action, precision strike.

以色列在敌国林立的中东开疆拓土,是靠尖端武器和强硬态度打出来的。靠谈判?早就被从地图上抹去了。特朗普现在也不稀罕谈判,你威胁我,我就杀你,你杀我的国民,我杀你的首脑,这让他的推特点赞量创了历史新高。

Israel's opening of its territory in the hostile Middle East depends on cutting-edge weapons and hard-liners. By negotiation? It was erased from the map. Mr. Trump doesn't want to negotiate now, and if you threaten me, I'll kill you, you kill my people, I kill your head, which puts his tweets at a record high.

只是,特朗普能够靠这种方式搞定中东吗?我觉得几无可能。他低估了伊朗的“制度优势”或者说美国的“制度劣势”。

Just, can Trump manage the Middle East in this way? I don't think it's possible. He underestimated iran's \"institutional advantage\" or america's \"institutional disadvantage \".

美国的白左已经在痛批特朗普,高喊NOWARONIRAN,而伊朗已经全国同仇敌忾。特朗普能够继续实施斩首行动?从美国在伊拉克的困境看,即便特朗普把伊朗的现在的政权推翻,依然没有戏。

The White Left of the United States is already hurting Trump, calling NOWARONIRAN, and Iran is already in the same country. Mr Trump can continue to carry out the beheading operation? From the predicament of the United States in Iraq, even if Trump overturns Iran's current regime, there is no play.

伊拉克原本被政治强人萨达姆统治——萨达姆必须强权,因为他属于穆斯林逊尼派,而逊尼派在伊拉克是少数派。不搞强权不独裁不镇压什叶派和库尔德人,萨达姆没有安全感。

Iraq was ruled by Saddam Hussein, the political strongman who must be powerful because he belongs to Muslim Sunnis, a minority in Iraq. No power, no dictatorship, no repression of Shiites and Kurds, Saddam Hussein has no sense of security.

萨达姆必然是罪行累累,因而美国说他最后“死得像条狗”,倒也没人同情,尤其是什叶派不同情。斩首成功之后呢?美国给伊拉克人民送来了民主。民主当然是好的,在理论上必然带来进步,但在中东却带来了倒退——最后还“孕育”出了更极端的ISIS。

Saddam must have been guilty, so america said he ended up "dead like a dog" without sympathy, especially from shia. After the beheading? The United States has brought democracy to the Iraqi people. Democracy is good, of course, and in theory it must lead to progress, but in the Middle East it has brought back – and ultimately "bred "more extreme ISIS.

民主就是多数人说了算,什叶派人多啊,于是什叶派就上台了。中东各国什叶派“亲如一家”,于是伊拉克就被中东什叶派国家伊朗给“渗透”了,伊拉克的政府成了伊朗的影子政府。对,就是那个每天都祈祷“美国人去死”的伊朗,以“民主手段”控制了伊拉克。

Democracy is where the majority is in charge and there are so many Shias that they come to power. Iraq has been \"infiltrated\" by the Middle East's Shia state, and its government has become a shadow government. Yes, it's the Iranian who prays every day that \"Americans die\" and controls Iraq with \"democratic means.\"

苏莱曼尼“雄才大略”,以这样的渗透方式,在中东搞定了伊拉克叙利亚,在国际上对抗美国,简直就是伊朗的民族英雄。

Sulaimani's \"great talent \", in such a way of penetration, in the Middle East, Iraq and Syria, in the international confrontation with the United States, is a national hero of Iran.

谁控制谁掌权这倒不是最重要的,最重要是的有没有一个和平安定的环境。抱歉,没有。据一位在1980年代就去伊拉克经商的中国人说,他当时认为,中国人民再过50年也赶不上伊拉克的基础设施和生活水平。可是,萨达姆被干掉十几年了,如今伊拉克还是千疮百孔。

It is not the most important thing to control who is in power, but the most important thing is whether there is a peaceful and stable environment. I'm sorry. No. According to a chinese who went to do business in iraq in the 1980s, he thought the chinese people could not match iraq's infrastructure and living standards in another 50 years. However, Saddam Hussein has been killed for more than a decade, and now Iraq is still full of holes.

这个案例告诉我们,在中东,强人独裁当然是不好的,但输入民主也没变好;巴列维是不好的,萨达姆是不好的,但是从老百姓的角度看,现在伊拉克、伊朗的总统名义上都是民选的了,好像更不好了。

This case tells us that in the Middle East, strongman dictatorship is certainly bad, but the import of democracy is not good; Barevi is bad, Saddam is bad, but from the common point of view, now Iraq, Iran's president is nominally elected, seems even worse.

为什么会这样呢?我的理解是,因为基于宗教、文化、传统、文明、历史观念的冲突实在难以调和,更何况,在这些观念冲突之上,还附加着利益冲突。

Why is this happening? It is my understanding that conflicts based on religious, cultural, traditional, civilized and historical ideas are hard to reconcile, not to mention conflicts of interest attached to them.

第一个结论,同样发源于中东的基督教文明与伊斯兰教(原教旨)文明具有强烈的互相抵触性。二者之间的矛盾最终似乎只能用丛林法则来解决。两次世界大战后,占具有优势的欧美文明向东扩张,撞碎了中东这片古老的土地。任意分隔那里的版图、攫取那里的利益,仇恨绵延至今并将继续下去。

The first conclusion is that the Christian civilization that also originated in the Middle East is strongly opposed to the Islamic civilization. In the end, the conflict between the two seems to be resolved only by the law of the jungle. After the two world wars, the dominant European and American civilization expanded eastward, crushing the ancient land of the Middle East. Arbitrarily dividing the territory and seizing its interests, hatred continues to this day and will continue.

第二个结论,欧美的价值观输出在非基督教文明的土地上很难获得成功。越是“文明古国”越难以适应他们的价值观——中东,那可是8000年前就有人类文明,4000年前就有城市的地方。“文明古国”土地上的人民,某种程度上已经被文化基因所固化,隐隐传承着一句口号,“我们是最好的”。

The second conclusion is that the export of European and American values in the land of non-Christian civilization is difficult to achieve success. The more \"ancient civilizations\" became more difficult to adapt to their values - the Middle East, where there were human civilizations 8,000 years ago and cities 4,000 years ago. The people on the land of \"ancient civilization \", to some extent, have been solidified by the cultural gene, vaguely inherited a slogan,\" we are the best \".

每一种文明都有强大的自我保护机制扩张冲动,不甘心被另外一个所谓先进文明否定。看看今天的欧洲,100年后,伊斯兰教和基督教最终统治那里,真的不好说。

Every civilization has a strong self-protection mechanism to expand impulse, not willing to be rejected by another so-called advanced civilization. Looking at today's Europe,100 years later, Islam and Christianity finally ruled there, it's really hard to say.

斩首行动,或许会吓倒一批人,恐怕对群体“基因”无可奈何。试问中国历史上“斩首”过多少皇帝?依然你方唱罢我登场。

Decapitating may intimidate a group of people, and I'm afraid there's no alternative to the gene. How many emperors have been beheaded in Chinese history? You're still singing.


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